NEWS ANALYSIS: ANC may pay as drought withers black farmers’ dreams

AMAJUBA — Cattle are the traditional asset by which Nampie Motloung, a black subsistence farmer, has long measured his wealth. But a blistering drought has made them a liability.

“I have no choice but to sell some of my cows. I must do it before they die,” Mr Motloung, 62, told Reuters as his 30-strong herd ambled in the distance across the parched landscape in KwaZulu-Natal.

“It pains me to do so. My cattle are my family’s inheritance,” he said.

The wealth of small-scale farmers and the dreams of emerging black commercial farmers are evaporating as SA’s worst drought in decades scorches the land.

The state’s response could be politically crucial. The African National Congress (ANC) relies heavily on rural areas and local elections loom next year.

KwaZulu-Natal is one of the worst affected areas.

It has already been declared a disaster area for water shortages, which will allow it to access some of the R364m the Treasury has allocated this financial year for immediate disaster relief.

Driving through the rolling hills of the province’s Amajuba district reveals a stark landscape, the green foliage of hardy thorn trees unfolding over brown and withered fields.

Along one dusty road, a Reuters crew saw a dying cow stuck in the hardening mud, its head beneath the wire of a fence where it had tried to get a last drink from a vanishing puddle.

Sell or starve

After drought last year cut SA’s staple maize crop by a third, a powerful El Niño weather pattern — which typically heralds poor rains for the region — is forecast to persist for most of the summer and perhaps extend into the autumn.

Livestock farmers were urged by the government last week to cut herd sizes as sizzling temperatures suck moisture from pastures, leaving them without the grass or nutrients to accommodate numbers that in some cases have been built up for decades as a store of family wealth.

Commercial agriculture is also affected, including new black farmers who have benefited from a government drive to redress the racial imbalances of the past by buying white-owned farms for redistribution.

Critics say many of the transferred farms have failed as newcomers lack capital and skills. But there have been success stories, notably in KwaZulu-Natal.

Analysts say if some of them start failing because of the drought it could erode the ANC’s rural base.

“Some of the medium-sized farmers in KwaZulu-Natal have been a success story and so it would be quite a blow to the party if they failed now even if it doesn’t seem fair because it is weather-related,” said political analyst Nic Borain.

Talent Cele, an affable 27-year-old with a self-proclaimed passion for working the land, is one of the new black farmers who is desperate for rain.

The almost 600ha farm he manages — formerly white-owned, being worked by a black co-operative — is bleeding its cattle in a vicious cycle.

“I have to sell cattle to buy feed because we have been advised to reduce the numbers. But feed is expensive and I also want to plant maize to feed the cows but I cannot. It is too dry,” he told Reuters.

Yellow maize, used mostly for animal feed, has been hitting year highs above R3,000 a tonne, according to Thomson Reuters’ data, because of the weather.

Mr Cele has been selling 25 cattle a month, bringing his herd size to 225 from about 350. The average price for a good animal has also fallen to R6,000 from R10,000.

Perfect storm

The ANC’s political problems are also rooted in its perceived failure to deliver basic services such as water and decent roads to many black communities, a situation that has given rise to regular riots by frustrated residents.

Decaying infrastructure in water utilities has also become glaringly apparent recently, raising the risk of shortages.

By contrast, in parts of rural KwaZulu-Natal the ANC has delivered admirably, solidifying its political support in the Zulu countryside. But its remaining shortcomings there may be amplified by the drought.

“It’s a perfect storm for the ANC as the evidence of the state of the water supply and a natural catastrophe converge,” said Mr Borain.

Back at Mr Motloung’s plot, he complains that his family must fetch water hundreds of metres away from a pump at Mr Cele’s farm. And his dam has dried up, so his cattle have to be watered laboriously by hand.

“I have gone to the local council but they have done nothing,” he said.




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